It's Time for Civilization Collapse Awareness - Pt. III

The continued pursuit of business as usual has made +3 °C global warming unescapable

This is the third and last post regarding global overshoot and climate change (the past first and second posts you can find here and here.)

What will a +3 °C World Look Like?

Nobody can tell exactly what a world with +3 °C global warming will look like but for sure we can already anticipate that it would cause untold suffering and misery.

The Earth’s atmosphere experienced today’s CO2 concentrations about 14 million years ago and a 3 °C warming about 30 million years ago (see here.). No climatologist was around at that time and it is hard to be precise. But we can be sure that the usual climate change effects we are already experiencing, will be intensified in magnitude and frequency. There will be more frequent and more intense extreme weather events.

Heat waves and droughts will become the norm also at previously colder latitudes. Floodings will destroy harvests. Polar ice caps and glaciers are going to melt completely, and inevitably sea levels will rise, and the solar radiation absorbed by the Arctic Ocean will no longer be ice-uncovered leading to further warming equivalent to a trillion tons of CO2. The ecosystem will be further disrupted, loss of biodiversity may have unpredictable consequences on agriculture, and water resources will become increasingly depleted (farmers are already forced to pump groundwater out of aquifers depleting it faster than the rain can recharge them.) Infectious diseases will spread more easily and pandemics become more frequent. Insects are already dying and could be further decimated. In less than two decades, flying insect numbers plummeted by 60%, an unsustainable spiral threatening the bedrock of our food chain and that of countless other species. In a world without insects, most ecosystems would collapse, because together with bees and butterflies they pollinate crops. Insects are at the base of our food chain, and that of countless other species. No insects, no food. Tipping points and self-amplifying feedback loops may be reached leading to abrupt and irreversible changes. For example, the increase in global temperatures may lead to the melting of permafrost in Siberia releasing its gargantuan reservoir of methane which is one of the most powerful greenhouse gases creating a self-reinforcing cycle that accelerates even further climate change. This could trigger a cascade of larger crises and compromise the climate irreversibly, entering a phase of the so-called ‘hothouse Earth’ in which Earth's climate experiences a self-reinforcing feedback loop that leads to rapid global warming beyond a point of no-return, and potentially irrevocably undermining the atmosphere’s and, consequently, humanity’s ability to recover for centuries. A deforestation tipping point, for example in the Amazon forest, will be driven by a double effect of direct human deforestation and climate-driven tree mortality caused by the lack of a rain-fall circulation triggering enormous wildfires that will release further amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. The so-called ‘Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’ (AMOC)—the system of ocean currents that circulates water within the Atlantic Ocean, bringing warm water north and cold water south—may collapse with rising temperatures. An AMOC shutdown could decrease the temperatures of the northern hemisphere by 3-8 °C, potentially leading to a little new ice age in Europe (what a paradox!) Agriculture in these regions would be massively destroyed. Warmer oceans will diminish phytoplankton’s vital role in oxygen production, finally collapsing marine life and jeopardizing the primary protein source for 3 billion individuals. The proliferation of billion-dollar disasters at 1-1.5 °C of warming, even when adjusted for inflation, has skyrocketed, but with its exponentially magnified consequences will turn out to be a mere glimpse compared to the material and financial damages looming ahead of a +3 °C world.

The impact of such an extreme climate change on the economic, political, and social levels need not be highlighted. Humanity, engrossed in urbanized lifestyles, overlooks the interdependency between cities and nature, failing to acknowledge nature's role in sustaining life. Humanity’s disconnect from the natural world, a consequence of urbanization and modernization, closes our eyes to the intertwined fate we share with the planet. Yet, fresh air, clean water, and healthy crops are integral to city survival and are all derived from Nature. One or more of these effects combined may trigger local and international conflicts, wars, global financial crises, political and societal turmoil, etc.

Ok, enough for doomsday scenarios… You may tell me that nobody can pretend to have a crystal sphere and predict the future. We should not create alarmism. Right? One hears that all these projections are based on climate models, and simulations, and sometimes don’t go much beyond educated guesses. What is going to happen exactly, nobody knows (for a more technical report of what catastrophic climate change scenarios might look like see here.) But, again, all these forecasts turned out to be too optimistic. It is now a scientific fact that anthropogenically induced climate change is real and is accelerating faster than predicted. And what if only one of these scenarios turns out to be correct? It is like playing the Russian roulette. Pulling the trigger not once but several times.

If this is still not convincing enough, let me tell you about a few things we can be sure about that are not speculations but that rely on simple physics and the bio-physical realities of the planet. The point is that we can safely say that certain physical, ecological, and atmospheric effects will take place in a +3 °C world because of thermodynamic considerations. We don’t know when, how, and where, but all will certainly lead to disasters. For example, flooding will become more frequent because of a simple physical law, the Clausius-Clapeyron's relationship, that tells that the warmer the air, the more moisture it holds. The atmospheric water content increases by about 6-7% per 1 °C. Therefore, an increase of + 3 °C results in ~21% more water in the atmosphere, which will have a major impact on rainfall¹

Moreover, if we look beyond the simplistic climate change standpoint and are willing to see the bigger picture in the frame of ecological overshoot, we can say for sure that, in general, the warmer the atmosphere, the more it will degrade the Earth’s carrying capacity to produce subsistence. A rising temperature decreasing Earth’s carrying capacity is the opposite of what we desperately need to increase, i.e., the available resources in an overpopulated world where the number of consumers is increasing and permanently aiming at an increase in GDP. Global warming does not influence the ecological footprint per se; rather, it reduces the already dwindling planet's annual regeneration capacity.

The crux of the matter is that while a +1.5 °C warming might have been manageable and even avoidable if humans had taken the appropriate measures in time as a responsible not-only-animal species, a +3 °C temperature increase will be beyond our technological and scientific control unless an almost ‘miraculous’ technological breakthrough, such as some form of geoengineering or the like, were to take place.²

Thus, there is no doubt that such a huge global average temperature increase will intensify heat waves and droughts, rendering vast areas of the planet inhabitable and destroying land available for agricultural use. Increasing temperatures will lead to the collapse of biodiversity and the ecosystem, causing food shortages. Extreme heat and permanent drought will cause massive crop failures and vast wildfires, thereby imploding economies and forcing hundreds of millions of refugees to flee from uninhabitable regions. The tropical latitudes will grapple with escalating temperatures, acute water scarcity, and an irrevocably changing landscape such as through desertification or territorial loss due to sea level rise. Increasingly higher temperatures will threaten farmers' physical ability to work, a new study finds. These areas will become inhabitable, leading to food crises and mass starvation. Densely populated areas of the world will become desert-like, making large parts of the planet uninhabitable. While the world population continues to grow (projections say until 2080), according to the UN, the global food demand until 2050 will grow by 70% as well. This is in stark contrast to an increasingly hotter and dryer environment that naturally tends to affect food production negatively. Yet, we must win this race if we want to avoid food shortages and a global famine. The population decline might set in much earlier than 2080 because of the lack of basic sustenance.

It isn’t difficult to see how this will most likely lead to mass migrations of unprecedented scales. We are already seeing the beginning of this in the Arab peninsula, Syria³, and several African regions. We are not talking about the tiny migrations that are presently destabilizing our societies. Current estimates speculate that the climate crisis might spawn up to 1.5 billion migrants seeking refuge from unendurable conditions by 2050. These people will have no other choice than to migrate to the northern and southern hemispheres. In particular, Europe and North America will be invaded by hundreds of millions of refugees from Africa and Central-South America, respectively. The economic and demographic consequences are unpredictable, but they will certainly be catastrophic. Also, famine might not be limited to the so-called ‘third-world countries.’ Heat waves, droughts, and floods will severely affect the European and North American continents. Their local carrying capacities will be reduced as well. The inundation of migrants will strain the existing infrastructure, overwhelm resources, and exacerbate existing fault lines of conflict. How will the weakened North come up with the added migratory load? Genetically modified foods might help,⁴ but they remain controversial, especially due to their impact on biodiversity and their monopolist position, which are some of the factors that led us into this situation in the first place. Other food production methods might help, but everything indicates that these may, at best, save us from a 1.5 °C world. In a super-hot +3 °C environment, they will not be sufficient to avoid food shortages, skyrocketing food prices, and, eventually, a global famine.

This will transform our current civilization to the point that the standard of living for most individuals will crash and the excess consumerism that we so stubbornly indulge in will finally come to an end. It will not lead to the extinction of the human race, but the ‘bust phase’ might reduce the world’s population to the reduced Earth's carrying capacity—meaning it might well result in the worst-case scenario: the deaths of billions.

It is hard to believe that this won’t further flame geopolitical tensions and societal fractures. It is to be expected that the reaction of society to such mass migrations will not be that of a responsible and mature species. With a collective that clings to an isolationistic and selfish nationalistic or even tribal worldview and that sees itself as being invaded by hordes of desperate foreigners, the xenophobic authoritarian anti-democratic forces will naturally profit from the situation and finally take control. In principle, the collective might also see this as another window of opportunity to rise to a higher state of consciousness and, instead, embrace a new ideal of human brotherhood. However, it must be a society that has gone at least a bit beyond our actual evolutionary stage. The impact of + 3 °C on the stability of institutions, the state, culture, politics, geopolitics, and ideology would most likely reflect a conflict-ridden world. Democracy, the rule of law, and human rights might be hijacked by rising authoritarianism and wars that will be ‘involutionary,’ not evolutionary.⁵ The dwindling of resources, exacerbated by an extreme +3 °C climate change, has the potential to ignite conflagrations between nuclear powers, especially on the Asian continent between India, Pakistan, China, North Korea, and Russia. This difficulty has caught the attention of the Defense Department, which recognized climate change as a formidable foe of global security.⁶ The quest for dominance and survival could cascade into full-scale wars with ramifications that greatly transcend our present understanding.

The bottom line….

Whatever the case, the message should be clear. No political machinery and technological magic wand alone will work. Our global industrial civilization carries a looming expiry date, an expiry that might well manifest within the span of present lifetimes. Half a century ago, humanity recklessly surpassed the planet's carrying capacity. The human animal didn’t care and relentlessly continued to exploit Earth's resources, pillaging them for our benefit while robbing forthcoming generations.

In principle, to avoid the worst, a cultural transformation and a change in minds and hearts is necessary, forming a spiritually awakened society that can think in terms of long-term complex dynamics and conceive of and feel humans as part of Nature rather than seeing it as a separate entity to exploit. But the number of Homo sapiens accepting, embracing, and inwardly feeling this reality is still a minority that is far from reaching a critical mass anytime soon. The most plausible outcome is that our blind and stubborn continuation of business as usual will sooner or later trigger Nature’s reset of humanity to the Earth’s carrying capacity. The illusion that science, technology, and appropriate socio-economic or political measures will make us a species independent from Nature is most likely going to be disproven by Nature itself, which might quickly bring to an end our boost period with a more or less cataclysmic bust cycle.

Humans may be exceptional from several standpoints, but let us accept reality and recognize that, no matter how much science and technology we resort to, we are an animal species driven by primal instincts—a species impelled to multiply itself and exploit the environment without restraints. It is in our intrinsic nature, as it is in all animals, and no degrowth wishful thinking will change that. Then Nature will intervene, as it always has on these occasions, and degrow the human. The delusion of fixing our problems on Mars by becoming an interplanetary species, which Elon Musk & Co. are trying to sell us, reflects a simplistic understanding of the reality on the ground and is only a distraction that will not help us. I’m now convinced that the present inertia of civil society has missed several opportunities and that a dismal century is inescapable. I guess it will take a couple of centuries to get out of this global mess. We are heading toward a new ‘dark age.’

People often ask, "We have heard about these doomsday scenarios so many times, and we are still here. Why spread fear, anxiety, and negativity?” Right, we still haven’t plummeted over the edge, and there will be no human extinction. I don’t believe in prophecies of the final days of apocalypses either. While the predictions of approaching apocalypses never materialized, even without the specter of human extinction, humanity has gone through several disasters and ice ages. It happened several times in the past, and there is no reason to suppose it won’t happen again. About 850.000 years ago, human ancestors might have almost died out after an ancient population crash, which coincided with a major climate change. The decline of the Mayan civilization was most likely caused by environmental factors, deforestation, and resource depletion. After all, it was no coincidence that human culture flourished only in the last 10,000 years, despite Homo sapiens walking the Earth’s surface for about 300,000 years. Only a stable climate allowed for it. We survived at least a couple of ice ages, but our cultural development could take place only during a period with a relatively stable climate. Jeopardizing that stability might well slow down, or even pause, our cultural, scientific, economic, and spiritual progress for a long time.

Laying the foundations for an age of light

We must psychologically begin to prepare for a future civilization collapse followed by an age that is worse for everyone, everywhere. However, we must not panic or go into a crazy ‘prepper mode’ that, yet again, reflects the same greedy culture of selfish accumulation of goods, stockpiling supplies without caring about others—a culture that landed us in these conditions.⁷ Rather, we must develop a new awareness that allows us to navigate the next gloomy century or two, beginning to lay the foundations for a subjective age. In fact, I believe in the coming of an age when the noblest material and spiritual human ideals will become reality, but to get there, the transition through a dark age now seems unavoidable.

Once we have gone through this tunnel, new societies could emerge, ones able to live in harmony with Nature, conscious of the balance between population, resource extraction, and its environmental impact. We will have to conceive of a new sustainable economy that nurtures Nature, fosters communal care, and doesn’t base its notion of wealth and health on a self-destructive ideal of illimitable growth. This would be a civilization conscious of the fact that it can’t survive in a permanent state of ecological global overshoot. We should begin immediately by supporting any research that could geoengineer the atmosphere and the land. This is, so far, still science fiction, and, as I said, it almost certainly won’t help us before the collapse of the present civilization. However, it could set a technological basis for generations that will have to engineer the environment back from an otherwise irreversibly impaired condition. This future civilization will rise from the ashes of our present one. It might learn from our errors and avoid doing everything all over again, starting from scratch. If there's a chance for such a future, we should exhaust every effort to make it a reality.

I know all too well how the awareness of a looming civilization collapse triggers feelings of depression and helplessness. However, if people feel depressed when informed about ongoing events, it is only because they can’t see any solution and can’t imagine themselves, their families, and society as a whole beyond the status quo. Depression is a sign of a cognitive inability to see anything other than the tunnel, remaining unable to see the light at the end of it, and then instinctively desiring to go back. Persisting in our denial won’t make us feel better.

It is time to see things from a different perspective and set different priorities.

First of all, there must be acceptance. We must accept the reality of the present moment, namely, that disaster is coming. This will allow for a more balanced and resilient approach to challenges. It enables individuals to navigate difficulties with more adaptability. Only with psychological acceptance can we (re-)build our present lives on a new foundation.

While we might not be able to avoid the failure of this civilization, we can redefine our goals and plant the seed of a new future sustainable society. We can work in the here and now to set a new basis that helps future generations recover from an ecological, economic, and social collapse. The human species must learn to confront the complex web of intertwined natural and societal realities and become able to work collaboratively toward resilient, inclusive solutions that transcend borders and ideologies. In a sense, we can immediately begin with ‘societal therapy’ for a different Anthropocene.

A future, more responsible society based on a socially fair distribution of wealth and support systems between current and future generations, and also among human and non-human beings, demands a mindset based on collective action, solidarity, compassion, and foresight to navigate the path of the hugely non-linear complex system that is Nature.

We can set the foundations for a culture capable of creating a human sustainable wellbeing economy and society operating within Earth’s ecological limits and ecological carrying capacity, based on population and economic growth and debt control, reforestation, land restoration, and, of course, among many other things, clean energy.

Some groups are thinking about new economic models.

We should teach children to look at the world not as the sum of separate dead things on which to capitalize but as a whole integrated system and living entity with ecological constraints. Especially in rich countries, we should transition from ideals of material opulence, devouring non-essential and frivolous goods, to teaching the values of parsimony, conservation, and the efficient use of land, food, energy, and all natural resources. A culture that can think locally and globally, specialistically and integrally, nationally and trans-nationally at once. A vision that naturally recognizes and intuitively understands—without having to pursue a PhD in environmental sciences—that tipping points exist in every ecosystem. A human race that discovers a new understanding of national identity and transnational relationships embracing a new ideal of human unity in diversity. What defines a national identity today, and what will be left of it in 2050-2100? Most likely not much. And, at that point, we will have to choose between conceiving a new idea and ideal of national identity or, fall back again to primitive instincts aimed at saving at all costs a dying identification with crude methods of self-preservation.

The visible goal of the present generation could be to set the basis of a spiritually awakened post-material society that goes beyond naive scientific materialism and awakens to a deeper reality and understanding of the world and, especially, itself. Ideally, we should become a living example for the future, one that inspires future generations that will have to rebuild a new and better world. In this way, they will have a foundation left by their ancestors and won’t have to start from scratch.

We must pursue a culture, vision, mindset, and education that does not need ‘degrowth’ theories because it can naturally avoid global and local overshoots that spin out of control in the first place.⁸

There will be a generation tasked with the monumental challenge of restoring the ecosystem and reconstructing a new societal framework from the ruins of a self-destructive one. Let us do our utmost to leave them at least some foundation from which they can start a process of renewal. Let us strive for a legacy that empowers future generations to forge a more resilient, harmonious, and fair world. By conscientiously laying the groundwork today, we can help provide them with essential elements to overcome an age of darkness by facilitating the creation of an age of light. This can unite an all-accepting attitude that does not fall into inertia and desperation with a life still full of new purpose, meaning, and action.

1. Make no mistake. This will not simply lead to 21% more rainwater. Rainfalls will be concentrated in small areas leading to floods, or come short in others causing droughts.

2. A technical ‘miracle’ that comes to my mind and that could get us back on track: new and unexpected discoveries, inventions, and the extreme enhancement of present technologies that could allow us to geoengineer the climate. For example, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies remove CO2 from the atmosphere—something that forests do naturally. Unfortunately, for the time being, these technologies are extremely energy-intensive and can suck CO2 out of the air only very slowly. Even slower than planting trees. Plus, this would extract only carbon dioxide, not other greenhouse gases. We still produce much more than what can be extracted. It wouldn’t make much sense to deploy this technology on a large scale until we stop emitting greenhouse gases. Another option could be stratospheric aerosol injection: Spray sulfur into the atmosphere to deflect heat away from the planet and artificially lower the world’s temperature. Other geoengineering ideas have been proposed but remain in an infant testing phase, and/or are too energy-intensive, and/or could have unexpected global catastrophic side effects, and/or are extremely expensive.
Meanwhile, a human ‘miracle’ I dream of is that of a global shift in consciousness and humanity waking up from its mass delusion. This would certainly change everything. However, as far I can see, the Almighty dreams of other miracles, and I nurture no illusion that this will happen anytime soon. I am reminded of the good old saying: “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”

3. Delving into the crucible of the Syrian refugee crisis can provide a sobering lens through which to anticipate the impending turmoil. The upheaval in Syria, triggered by a multifaceted crisis encompassing drought, political unrest, and violence, served as a prologue to the looming specter of climate-induced migration. The Syrian Civil War was more than a localized conflict; it was a catalyst that spewed waves of displaced individuals across the globe due to the prolonged drought spanning 2006 to 2010. This catastrophic event reshaped landscapes, rendering vast swathes of fertile land barren. Agriculture, the backbone of Syrian livelihoods, crumbled, leading to crop failures and livestock decimation. This left most farmers without sustenance. The exodus from rural to urban areas engendered by this environmental calamity amplified societal tensions, pitting disparate ethnic and religious factions against each other. The civil unrest birthed from these tensions, compounded by political repression, instigated the Syrian Civil War. Amidst this strife, infrastructure crumbled, compelling individuals to flee and furthering the exodus of refugees. As a result of their forced migration, many Syrians braved perilous sea voyages to reach Europe. In contrast, others sought safety in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq. The odyssey of these displaced individuals fanned the flames of xenophobia and nationalism, birthing right-wing extremism, feeding into anti-migrant policies, and leading to the erecting of walls and the election of leaders who perpetuated xenophobic narratives. However, Syria's crisis, while profound, is just the harbinger of a more significant storm brewing on the horizon of a +3 °C world.

4. Perhaps, further developed agricultural practices like hydroponics and/or vertical farming might help feed the world without further exploiting farmland, independent of climate conditions. However, so far, such practices require high initial investments, making them commercially unrentable. In addition, they aren’t suitable for all types of crops and are relatively energy-intensive. That these technologies will save us from food shortages in an overcrowded world is far from certain.

5. In hindsight, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, which took the world by surprise, isn’t surprising at all. Ukraine is revered for its fertile lands, which have earned it the title of ‘Europe’s breadbasket,’ and holds strategic allure for Russia as it endeavors to fortify its position in the shifting tides of global dominance. Russia perceives control over Ukraine as being pivotal for its long-term geopolitical ambitions, as a stronghold essential for navigating the tumultuous terrain of an increasingly resource-scarce world.

6. This is a mix of irony and muck-around considering that the armed forces worldwide have a massive carbon footprint that is absent from global accounting.

7. This doesn’t mean that preparing for various potential disruptions to be self-sufficient and endure challenging times isn’t wise. It is. However, when it becomes an obsession with compulsive attitudes that absorb all of our time at the expense of others and even ourselves, it becomes a mental illness.

8. One of the reasons any ‘degrowth’ policy meets with fierce resistance is that without economic expansion, every country would quickly default due to its inability to pay back its national debt. The connection between a perpetual growth ideology and debt is deeply intertwined and will have to be reconsidered in a post-collapse society.