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Tina Lee Forsee's avatar

A timely post for me, since I was just talking with someone about these very issues.

"Thus, to my knowledge, no satisfactory (classical or quantum) theory has been proposed that can explain how divine causation, if any, operates within the universe as described by science."

Right. The key phrase here is "as described by science". I agree there's a lot of confusion on both sides. Theists evoke quantum indeterminism or fine tuning arguments or other physical-law breaking phenomena, but these types of arguments face the same problems as the old divine clockmaker analogy. These theist arguments take a scientistic framework for granted and reason more or less inductively, drawing sweeping generalizations from necessarily limited scientific "conclusions". Interestingly, both sides agree on the inductive reasoning, and yet both sides happily point out the epistemological precariousness of their opponent's reasoning without seeing that their criticisms apply equally to their own position.

For instance, in this video, Sean Carroll applauds the fine tuning argument for "playing by the rules" and calls it the theist's best argument. In other words, he's insisting that explanations must be scientific:

https://youtu.be/KjRkOzKy0Iw?si=RYMMLpCjaeGhlYI0&t=125

From there he proceeds to knock down the fine tuning argument on the basis of epistemological uncertainty, either because science isn't complete or because we don't have the privilege of a god's eye view. (He asks: how do we know what physical parameters are required for life to exist? First we have to define life, etc. Then he evokes the incompleteness of science by saying, "until we know the answer, we can't claim they [physical parameters] are finely tuned".) But he fails to see his arguments cut both ways.

I would rather question his assumption that anything outside science's purview simply doesn't count as knowledge. Where is the scientific evidence for that? It's not just an unsupported claim that goes beyond what science can actually tell us about the world, but an epistemic overreach, one that's all too common and often goes unchallenged. And I disagree with him in his opinion that the fine tuning argument is the best argument theists have—I think it's one of the worst. I think these types of arguments often concede too much to naturalism at the outset and get stuck in the same quagmires.

It's not terribly popular these days to suggest we approach explanations of the physical world with the appropriate epistemic humility required for the subject matter. And so now whenever I challenge physicalism, it's assumed that my views are no different from someone like Phillip Goff's, who said on Twitter, "According to our current best physics the universe is fine-tuned for life. It's astonishing how many people feel able to deny the science on this." He was trying to be provocative, of course, and he succeeded in that. But I don't think that's the best approach. It undermines the larger point Goff himself made in one of his books or articles (I can't remember which) that modern science gained its usefulness and predictive power by cutting reality down to size.

Of course, this point has been made many times, and maybe it needs to be made clearer that science really is a limited kind of knowledge. But how? What more can be said? I agree, I don't think it'll work to say science can't explain everything, or science can't explain x—reduction is always possible, in principle, after all. It won't work to say science proves god or some immaterial thing exists—your opponent will always see nothing but a duck where you see an illustrator drawing a duck-rabbit with pen and paper. What can we do but point emphatically and say, "There's more than the duck! See!?"

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Jim Owens's avatar

We talk grandly about a "clockwork universe," but I think an example may be helpful.

This afternoon, while coming back from the beach, I fell off my bicycle. A car was approaching on the narrow dirt road, and I was well to the side, where the red soil had piled up from a constant wind. My hat blew off, and I braked hard, only to slide in the loose earth. As the bike came to a halt, I began to fall.

There are two things you can do when you begin to fall off a bike. You can fight to stay upright, or you can go along. Being an old fellow, and not as strong as I used to be, I chose to go along. As a boy I used to practice falling -- it was an exercise in a judo book I owned -- and now I put this experience into practice, relaxing my body into a cushioned fall on my left side. The bike proved to be an encumbrance, and I sustained a slight bruise on my inner thigh, but overall the manoeuvre went well. I disentangled myself from the machine and waved to the driver, calling out, "I'm fine!"

From the point of view of a clockwork universe, we can look for the causality here. The physical forces that were about to take me down could be calculated with some precision. The trajectory of my fall, the point where I would hit, even the marks left in the dust, could be foretold in advance by the tools of our present science, to within fairly tight tolerances.

But extending this story, and looking deep into my brain, these same tools are expected to provide a much deeper account that includes why I chose to fall, rather than struggle to stay upright. This kind of prediction is not within reach of our present science. Nevertheless, we hold confidently that we could do it in principle. The account we give is one of inputs and outputs: my brain received information about my probable trajectory, and based on its previous experiences, that is to say the accumulation and configuration of white matter up to that moment in my life, sent outputs to my limbs that resulted in me falling off.

But something is missing from the account: namely, the idea that I might, at the risk of pulling an aging muscle or two, have fought to stay upright, to avoid the bruise and to spare my dignity, to land with my feet planted astride the frame. This scenario would have been equally within the laws of physics. Had I made the attempt, the outcome could have been predicted, to a reasonable degree of precision, with our present tools. It might have been one of failure, but the mere jerk of the handlebars or twist of my torso would nevertheless have led to a different result. And this result would not have required any violation of causality. The only difference between the many physically possible scenarios following this instant in time concerns the amount of strength or resistance I decided to muster.

For all the successes of our current science, the proposition that it could have predicted my decision remains a fantastical one. The model of clockwork has been pushed far beyond any legitimate claims to power. It is quite conceivable that in my brain, or more likely my entire body, some complex of quantum manipulations inserted itself, deviating in subtle ways from the main chance through millions or billions of probabilistic spikes, calculating in unfathomable ways what to do about the immediate future, and then making a choice. The clockwork effects would have followed either way; but the machine would have been, as it were, tilted.

The clockwork model resists this organic interjection, and even has the temerity to put it down to foolish and fantastical notions of "free will," of which the thoroughly rational thinker must be disabused. But in its failure to acknowledge the vivid reality that is everywhere encountered at moments like these, it is the clockwork account that begins to look foolish and fantastical.

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